Pattaya Property Report

Not a great deal has changed in the weeks since my last newsletter. Still, that is not really a bad thing, particularly bearing in mind that we are in the middle of the so-called low season, one in which we are having quite a lot more rain than is normal, and yet business is ticking over relatively well.

However, one never really knows what lies ahead and so, at this time of the year, the question is always whether the market is going to have a sudden and significant slow down, at least until the next high season comes around towards the end of the year. Obviously, during this quieter time of the year, there is an increased chance that business will drop off and it is good to be mindful of that risk. But, with that being said, it is also worth bearing in mind that, at the time of writing, it is already the middle of June. Once summer holidays are out of the way, we will be knocking on the door of August. By the time my lad goes back to school a few weeks later, we will only be a couple of months away from the start of the traditional high season again. And normally it passes by even quicker than it sounds when distilled down to a few short sentences.

Historically, what we have usually seen during these summer months is a couple of slow periods, which typically last a few weeks, and then, for some reason and pretty much out of nowhere, things suddenly get busy again. There isn't, usually, any apparent reason for the unexpected pick up in business, but still it happens year in, year out. My suspicion is that this year will be the same again, but of course one really never knows for sure. Then, as the start of the traditional high season gets near, there is normally quite a significant upswing in the demand for long term rental properties.

As to whether this year will see the big recovery that so many people always talk about, personally I doubt it. Before the local property market can get back to where it was a few years ago, there are a number of things which have to change. And those changes are not likely to happen overnight. I rather suspect that there will be some steady improvement, year on year, from last year, as there was last year from the year before. Certainly that has been our experience during the first half of the year.

All the same, notwithstanding this steady improvement, my personal belief is that we still have some way to go before the market really starts to take off again. I don't doubt it will happen, because I am convinced that economically, and particularly in relation to property markets, everything is cyclical. Good times, and of course bad, come around again, it is just a question of how big, and thus how long, the cycle will be.

Of course I would love to be wrong and see the market take off again as soon as possible. However, I don't yet see it on the horizon, although one might properly counter that if it were easy to see it coming, making money would be a very straightforward exercise. Nevertheless, I strongly suspect that there will be growth (and quite rapid growth at that) within certain sectors of the market and in particular locations at different times during the next couple of years. However, the overall boom that I believe will inevitably follow such a big and lasting downturn is, I think, still some way off.